Friday, September 27, 2013

Credit, credit, everywhere


All forms of payment are credit, but some credit is the result of past transactions and some is the result of putative future transactions. There is the value of work done and the value of work to be done, and both are valid for exchanges in the present. Past value is that of past production, and the corresponding credit allows that produce to be exchanged. Introducing future value means more credit and more exchanges, an extra demand that is either invested or consumed. However, investments must grow or increase their productivity, before there is any increase in consumer supply (1).

Supposing the value from the future is invested, it employs idle labour and thereby increases consumer demand before (there are always several stages of production preceding the consumption stage) the increase of consumer supply. This could be resolved if the extra work force shared the past credit of the existing work force until the extra consumption became available. It would be a part of the general fund set aside for the part of society that does not participate directly in the production process, the young, the old, the disabled, the dreamers, etc. As that is not the case, investing future credit is inflationary.

The other problem with investing future credit is its property and that of the investment. Pas credit is the promise to pay of an exchange that has taken place. Future credit is the promise to pay of an exchange that has yet to take place. This future event has a probability, a degree of risk that gives the creditor the excuse for insurance, for interest and “a pound of flesh”. Future credit is the exclusive dominion of banks. They have the power to increase or reduce demand, because they know that the volume of future credit can grow indefinitely as long as accounts at the clearing houses are balanced. And, as future credit pays interest, banks are inclined to grant more and more. Past credit is supervised by central banks. They make the fiat money, coins and notes as well as scriptural, that symbolises the value of work done. The two credits criss-cross the market and become confused, with the past paying the future and vice versa.

Future credit can be based on a future return and be invested, or it can be based on a future income and be consumed. Past credit is the value of work done, which is divided in three, the work that made the investment, the work that used the investment and the work unpaid of surplus value. The first share of past credit is for investment maintenance and renewals. But the renewal cycles of some investments last years or even decades, during which time the accumulated past credit is put to other uses. The second share is the consumption needed to perpetuate the work force and rule over it. The third share is unpredictable surplus value. It can be consumed with aristocratic splendour, and it can be invested with bourgeois sobriety. So that, apart from the upkeep of state and labour, the destiny of past credit is uncertain.

Past and future credits change hands on the market (change accounts) indistinguishably. Except that past credit buys property rights, whereas future credit only buys the appearance of property as interest must be paid to the bank. This being so, the past credit of surplus value tends to increase investments. At which point an ideological programme is propagated. As surplus value fuels growth, the more there is of it the better for everyone. Meanwhile, prior to any trickledown, more surplus value means less past credit for state and labour who try to preserve their upkeep with future credit. And the addiction to wealth accumulation prohibits the trickle. And when production outgrows future credit, when supply is superior to demand, invested surplus value turns to speculation in real estate, carbohydrates and hydrocarbons, art works, precious stones and metals, shares and bonds, all the non-productive investments that inflate bubbles and sting the latecomers when the balloon bursts. This is a concentration process that takes wealth from the many and gives it to the few.

Growth cycles need to increase demand, first for investment, then for consumption. The first stage employs more labour with the same consumption. The second stage supplies more consumption. But consumer demand can only increase if it has the wherewithal, that is a creation of more past credit. But by then it has become a habit to invest past credit in increasing employed labour, and the same goes for the monetary emissions. This could be a social model for growth, were it not for the divisions of private and national property. It requires a planet held in common by all its inhabitants, where only usage is personal, an egalitarian Utopia that can only be aspired to, never reached. In the real world, uncountable cross-border differences give private capital the opportunity to move in search of greater profit for the owner, wherever he is domiciled.

The nature of private capital, as unpredictable past credit in search of profit, is regulated and constrained, but the rules and laws are ignored or evaded however restrictive they may become. And nobody wants closed frontiers and embargos. An alternative is the possession and control of capital by the labour that uses it to produce value. But a very active minority with unlimited means does not want that.

1. Sometimes new machines are cheaper than their less productive predecessors. In the case of digital technology this has applied form the start, though the microchip may be approaching its ultimate stage.

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

An inextricable mess


The exchange of commodities goes far back into prehistory. At the beginning, when hunters lived in autonomous family groups that only gathered together occasionally, exchanges concerned very few articles. Then the Neolithic division of labour between ploughman and herdsman promoted exchanges, and their multiplication produced the concept of money. It took on various forms, cacao beans, seashells, animal hides, axe heads, et cetera, but it finally adopted the identity of metal coins. Without money, exchanges are complicated. The producer of article A, who wants article B, must find the producer of article B, who wants article A. And there is the problem of value and its divisions. Half a shoe or one shoe have neither use nor exchange value. So that metal, so easily divided, was the perfect intermediary for all exchanges large and small.

Money is the universal measure of value, which exalts it to the position of value as such. So the intermediary becomes the beginning and the sought after end. In the endless chains of money circulating from hand to hand as payment for goods and labour, money can be between two commodities in selling to buy, and commodities can be between two amounts of money in buying to sell (1). In the first case, money is the go-between of commodities and measures their equal values. Commodity A is exchanged for B, C and/or D that have the same exchange value as A but different usages. These necessary exchanges result from the division of labour and its multiple specialisations. In the second case, commodities are the go-between for sums of money with the same usage but different values.

Buying to sell instead of selling to buy was a new division of labour that resulted from trade routes opening on land and sea. As commodities moved over increasing distances, merchants controlled their motion and the corresponding flows of money. Commercial profit was the second form of return on investment, after the primordial land rent. They competed for shares of surplus value, and this competition opposed towns and country. Most of the population was rural, so the land owners could levy poorly equipped troops in large numbers. The towns had fortified walls and arms for a citizen’s army. The struggle was never decisive and some great ports formed city-states. Elsewhere trade was hampered by taxes, to the advantage of land rent. But, wherever trade flourished, merchants became bankers.

Historically, trade enriched the merchant bankers at the expense of the landed aristocracy, who were forced to share surplus value. The shopkeeper’s balance joined the hereditary sword as a symbol of power. Foreign trade has always bordered on piracy. Taking by force can be direct plunder or indirect extortion, and the nature of exchanges can have far reaching consequences. Flooding foreign markets with excess production could be a cause for war, so that trade was soon oriented towards regions that did not have a war making capacity. To lessen the pressure on each other’s markets, the cities of ancient Greece (and later the European states) started to trade overseas. They shipped their surplus production and their warmongers round all the Mediterranean (the Europeans did it all round the globe).

Trade brought new commodities to the market, which increased the value exchanged and the surplus value that could be extracted as rent and commercial profit/interest. If the sword finally accepted to share wealth and power with the balance, it was because the prize they were sharing was multiplying. The merchant princes of the Renaissance had precedents in Athens and Rome. It was the next step into the machine age that had never been taken before. However, might and money continued to struggle over the booty, and it was more than two centuries after Columbus’ discovery and Lorenzo Medici’s birth that a third contender challenged their rule.

Planet Earth with its exceptional particularities is the primeval source of wealth. Dominion over land and sea is the property of might – they can be taken and held by force – whereas exchange is a nomadic and fleeting event controlled by money (basically credit). But both depend on the productive and transformative powers of human activity, on skills and motive forces. Before the Middle Ages, animal and mainly human muscle was the only motion-producing energy on hand. Boats had sails as well as rowers, and the waterwheel was a late invention of the Roman period. Then, as the Middle Ages drew to a close, ships were built that could beat to windward and sails were adapted to turn millstones. And that seemed to be it, while wealth creating labour remained essentially the straining of muscles by man and beast. However, the explosive force of gunpowder and the mechanical reproductivity of the printing-press set off some imaginative thinking. It took time, but four centuries after Crecy and three centuries after Gutenberg, James Watt was putting the final touches to the steam engine. Since then machines driven by fossil fuels and electricity have replaced productive muscle power just about everywhere. Hence the obsession with sport.

Machines had not begun with Watt, nor with Savery or Papin. Their most rudimentary forms are as old as humanity. But the construction of a mechanical driving force was revolutionary. By multiplying horse-power, motors multiplied production and its surplus value, and set off a new struggle over the partition of the extra wealth, in a triangular contest that completely changed the rules. The power of land was (is) territorial, whereas the power of money was (is) extra-territorial, which meant that territorial government was controlled by land-owners. The power of machines was (is) also territorial, themselves and their infrastructures. And it was at this stage that government became bipolar, land and machines on opposite sides and money in the centre dithering back and forth. And, as power swung between left and right, the state took on an autonomous identity. It became a sort of arbiter, benign or authoritarian, taking a share of wealth, commanding the armed forces and trying to steer the nation, a materialisation of the prevailing ideology.

Government may favour land-owners, or it may favour machine owners, while the bankers do business with all three. Ruling power alternates according to the strength of the opposing forces in their ideological battles. One side groups real property both large and small. The other owns brands, patents and copyrights. There are a lot of crossovers, but the two compete for political dominion and for portions of surplus value. The economic tensions between rent and dividend are played out on the political arena as a continual spectacle, with the regular highlights of electoral circuses. This permanent activity at the front of the stage distracts attention from another more fundamental conflict, where capital acts in unison against labour. Politicians are the front-men for lobbies, by conviction or material interest. The wealthiest and most “convincing” lobbies are those of property, which means they monopolise the representation. Requested to vote, the people are given the choice of property or property. The only systemic difference is that agriculture tends to employ an unskilled work force of underpaid immigrant day-labourers, while industry tends to employ a skilled work force of salaried qualified collaborators, hence their respective reactionary and liberal discourses.

The proprietors of land, money and machines demand surplus value, that part of the value added by labour over and above the cost of labour’s upkeep and renewal. Like the machines they serve, workers have running costs and the aged must be replaced by new generations. The feudal lord and his retinue consumed his surplus value. His only investment was war, which seldom brought a return. Trade and credit were profitable, but subprime debts have always been catastrophic. So that capital accumulation only began to expand freely with the mechanisation of industry. Trade can participate in the exploitation of labour, but it cannot modify the value produced. Though it can change demand, as in 16th century England where land was closed for rearing sheep for the wool trade instead of growing corn for bread (2). Machines modify production. They are multipliers of strength and speed. They offer the unlimited means for the unlimited growth of surplus value. Or so it seemed, and still does to many. The system did stall occasionally – quite regularly in fact – and competing nations went to war. There were large scale destructions of wealth, police states, imperialism, global pollutions and weapons of mass destruction. But all this was obviously the fault of evil people and of Evil per se, because the private property of the means of production and the toll it takes have no alternatives. Evil of course is just a perception that has no master-plan and, on closer inspection, surplus value has a very problematic existence (3).

The price obtained on the market for goods and services is made up of numerous different parts. Some go to refunding investment and renewing machines, buildings and the supply of energy and raw materials. Some go to maintaining the working nation’s generations with the necessities of life and happiness, some go to the state for security and legislation, and some to property as surplus value. Exchanges on the market always have money on one side of the deal. If the goods and services supplied contain all the above mentioned values, the wherewithal of demand must also contain them. So the value obtained on the market is distributed to create a new demand. This extremely varied demand has a major dividing line between investment and consumption. On one side, demand concerns goods and services that will either transmit their value or acquire more value during a production process. On the other, demand concerns goods and services whose value will be consumed. A portion of demand gets its value back enhanced by rent, interest or dividend, while the rest of demand is consumed and its value needs to be created all over again.

Demand for investments is basically of two different kinds. It is either the renewal of existing investments and comes from that part of the partition of value described above, or it is an extension of existing investments and comes from elsewhere. The shares of demand granted to labour and state functionaries are for the upkeep of people who are doing things. The shares of demand granted to property is also for the upkeep of people doing things, but the individual shares are larger and may be added to shares from labour or state, and may exceed the cost of upkeep if it is thrifty. This can result in hoarding or, more and more commonly over the past couple of centuries, in an investment that brings in more income, which in turn demands more investment, etc. The surplus value of property tends to be invested instead of being consumed, and the supply for consumption is diverted to supply investments. Rural populations, who produced their own needs plus the landlord’s rent and the state’s taxes, were herded off the land into factories to make things they had no use for, while all the things they did need dwindled considerably. However, the supply of investments could only grow so far. Steel production had grown with the railways. Once tracks had been laid on all the continents and were struggling to make a return, expansion stopped and steel magnates turned to making warships and big guns for the state, which made possible the destructive consumption of two world wars. The rail magnates were just bailed out.

When productive investments grow, there is a resulting growth in consumption at some later date. But increasing demand for investments automatically reduces demand for consumption. This dilemma can be resolved by exporting consumption and importing investments. In fact this is the preferred if not the only way to accumulate private capital, but it is highly disruptive for those nations who must necessarily export investments and import consumption. It is the imperial trade of dominion, where raw materials are exchanged for weapons and luxury goods, and for plastic bags and shoes. It destroys existing production, inhibits enterprise and favours tyranny. It produces socio-economic break downs and lawlessness. At which point the balance between loss and gain goes all red. Meanwhile, at the heart of empire, there was a widening productivity gap. Automation was multiplying output, but certain productions still needed agile hands, notably for assemblages such as clothing and electronics, and for picking strawberries, apples and pears. Price competition and imperative profit sent factories abroad and brought in seasonal immigrants. This massive transfer of labour was presented as a brave new world, with a white-collar empire directing sweat-shops and mine-shafts all round the world, which was just a fantasy driven by post-Cold War hubris.

Factories had been built abroad before (VW in Brazil since 1957), but they mostly assembled stuff sent by the company’s home base for the local market. Instead of shipping fragile cars, ship the components and have the work intensive assembly done by cheap labour. It was just one step back from exporting consumption. However, having things made abroad for home consumption means that value, however small, is being added elsewhere. At the beginning, the mass of investments hid this incremental deficit but, with time as more and more factories began producing, it became a chronic commercial debt that could only be settled with Treasury bonds. Meanwhile the empire was suffering the traditional woes of consumption importers. Manufacturing jobs disappeared, putting pressure on the remaining work force. For the middle class, the increased work load meant hiring domestic help, and the wage freeze meant borrowing. There was a brief boom in the services industry (low investments and low pay) and in the distribution of social aids, and a massive expansion of personal debts.

For the past twenty years, the empire has concentrated private wealth as never before and has accumulated three growing deficits that have reached gigantic proportions. The trade deficit is linked to the wage deficit, which causes the budget deficit, but the first and the last cancel each other with an exchange of paper at interest. Pushed by the frantic competition for surplus value, the empire outsourced part of its production and exchanged investments for consumption, thereby reversing the order of a nation’s profitable trade. Private interests, the illusion of a borderless global market and an ignorance of past experiences have built a colossal structure with the paper of debts. And now that its foundations in the real economy are showing signs of weakness, it is easy to predict that the next serious storm will bring the building down. And, unfortunately, lynching bankers will solve nothing, though it might calm angry mobs. All private property of the means of production is involved, and its unquenchable thirst for higher returns on capital investments has brought this about. Production has stalled due to insufficient consumer demand, because property was investing too much surplus value. This means that all the extra surplus value, plus the productive investments that are not renewed, only have the choice of speculative investments that do not increase production, making the last hay before the big freeze-up.

1. Often represented as C-M-C and M-C-M.
The three classic functions of money are, intermediary of exchange, standard measure of value and reserve of value.
2. Large scale enclosures began when Henry VIII confiscated church property, and continued almost to the end of the 19th century.
3. See Rosa Luxemburg’s study of surplus value in “The Accumulation of Capital”.

Wednesday, September 04, 2013

Déjà Vu


The Spanish civil war opposed the Popular Front, who had won the 1936 elections, and the Spanish Phalanx, who had lost them. The Phalanx was supported by most of the officer class and their leaders, generals Mola, Sanjurjo and Franco, who brought over well armed experienced combat troops from occupied Morocco. The Popular Front government had few constituted army units on its side, but it had the backing of the major labour unions, the Stalinist UGT, anarchist CNT and Trotskyist POUM. When both sides solicited outside help, Mussolini and Hitler sent munitions, and troops to the Phalanx, while French and British governments hummed and hawed, maintained an arms embargo and tried to stop people crossing the border to join the International Brigades. The Spanish Phalanx was in line with Italian Fascism and German National Socialism, whereas the parliamentary monarchy and republic were repulsed by communism and anarchy. And so the Phalanx won the war – provoking a mass exodus – and installed Franco as dictator for the next 35 years. Not to mention the encouragement this gave the Axis Powers in the lead up to WW2.

The civil war in Syria presents a similar dilemma. Assad has most of the military elite on his side (dominated by Alawites since the French protectorate, 1920-1946), arms and support from Russia and China, plus units of Lebanese Hezbollah and probable volunteers from Iraq and Iran. Opposing him are popular organisations and army deserters – mostly Sunni with some salafi and a few international units not necessarily affiliated to al Q – with some material help from Qatar and Saudi Arabia. But the springtime social agitation of 2011 led directly to fighting, without an intermediary electoral process and short-lived government, which meant the opposition had to structure itself from a ground-swell of popular revolt, as well as fight a civil war. Meanwhile, Europe and America were humming and hawing over aid to the opposition forces, idly wondering if they were legitimate, and wishing they would just go away so as to avoid deciding anything. Unfortunately, the clear division between autocracy and people power is blurred by religious affiliations, as it was by political ones eighty years ago. The gas attack on a Damascus suburb may be a Guernica moment, when the crocodile world stood by and said, “How terribly sad!”. If Assad’s military regime wins out, it could be a nasty foretaste of things to come, as was Franco’s victory in 1939.

This is a modified version of a previous post, May 26th, 2013