Decennial disturbances

Supposing that growth in borrowing and growth in GDP are intimately linked, it follows that a slowdown in borrowing results in slow GDP growth. Borrowing increases GDP when more debts are contracted than are paid back. This means that the length of a growth cycle is determined by the terms of the incurred debts. The commonest long term debt has a ten year duration, which should predict a decennial event. 1987, 1997, 2007, 2017, will the programmed slump follow its usual timetable? These things traditionally occur at the beginning of the last quarter, when everyone is chasing cash to tie up the year’s budget. But the Asian lunar calendar could start the ball rolling a month or so earlier.