Where has all the money gone?
US
dollars are in strong demand at the moment. Foreign and crypto
currencies, real estate and bonds are being sold at lowering dollar
prices. Even corporate shares are wavering a little below their
recent peaks. Everyone is running after greenbacks. The situation is
so strained that the Federal Reserve has poured liquidity into the
system to save it from breaking down. The need to pay taxes has been
blamed for this upheaval. The corporate tax season does draw out a
lot of cash, but it occurs at the same time every year and should
have been provided for. This run on liquidity must have other causes,
with taxes just being the tipping point. One obvious cause is
near-zero interest rates. A long time ago Keynes estimated that below
2% most investors preferred to keep their funds in cash. That no
longer holds, as Treasury bonds are being bought well below that
rate. But most of the buying has been speculation on the rising
prices of bonds, not on their measly returns. Now that prices are
falling, however, everybody wants to get out. And this is happening
just as the US Treasury is printing reams of new bonds that banks are
obliged to buy. US dollars are in short supply due to hoarding, and
in strong demand for the above mentioned reasons. This does not bode
well for the coming months.
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