Friday, September 27, 2019

Where has all the money gone?


US dollars are in strong demand at the moment. Foreign and crypto currencies, real estate and bonds are being sold at lowering dollar prices. Even corporate shares are wavering a little below their recent peaks. Everyone is running after greenbacks. The situation is so strained that the Federal Reserve has poured liquidity into the system to save it from breaking down. The need to pay taxes has been blamed for this upheaval. The corporate tax season does draw out a lot of cash, but it occurs at the same time every year and should have been provided for. This run on liquidity must have other causes, with taxes just being the tipping point. One obvious cause is near-zero interest rates. A long time ago Keynes estimated that below 2% most investors preferred to keep their funds in cash. That no longer holds, as Treasury bonds are being bought well below that rate. But most of the buying has been speculation on the rising prices of bonds, not on their measly returns. Now that prices are falling, however, everybody wants to get out. And this is happening just as the US Treasury is printing reams of new bonds that banks are obliged to buy. US dollars are in short supply due to hoarding, and in strong demand for the above mentioned reasons. This does not bode well for the coming months.

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