Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Is another bailout possible?


It seems that stock markets are running out of steam. The New York Stock Exchange, which mostly sets the trend, has been boosted by buybacks that were fuelled by tax cuts on returning foreign profits. And that very solvent demand is drying up. Of course, some speculators will still make gains whatever happens. But companies that have a large debt load will be in trouble, and there are many in that situation. Debts are compared to assets that insure against a possible default, and to income that insures repayment or, at least, payment of interest on debts renewed at term. A company’s assets are measured by its stock market value, and its available income is its profits minus taxes and dividends. However, some companies are not making any profit and some are even running a loss, and yet they are able to pile up huge debts because their market value is enormous (TESLA is a typical example). When their debts come to term, these companies will face serious difficulties, and many will fail and go bankrupt. But even companies that are making profits have borrowed a lot, for mergers and acquisitions and to buy back shares, taking advantage of very low interest rates. A drop in the stock market will make the renewal of those debts more costly, as the debt to assets ratio rapidly multiplies. This will present the same negative equity problem as the one that occurred ten years ago during the subprime housing bubble. But who will benefit from the bailout this time? Will it be the banks all over again, or will it be the too large to fail corporations? And do central banks have the capacity for a repeat performance?

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