Is another bailout possible?
It
seems that stock markets are running out of steam. The New York Stock
Exchange, which mostly sets the trend, has been boosted by buybacks
that were fuelled by tax cuts on returning foreign profits. And that
very solvent demand is drying up. Of course, some speculators will
still make gains whatever happens. But companies that have a large
debt load will be in trouble, and there are many in that situation.
Debts are compared to assets that insure against a possible default,
and to income that insures repayment or, at least, payment of
interest on debts renewed at term. A company’s assets are measured
by its stock market value, and its available income is its profits
minus taxes and dividends. However, some companies are not making any
profit and some are even running a loss, and yet they are able to
pile up huge debts because their market value is enormous (TESLA is a
typical example). When their debts come to term, these companies will
face serious difficulties, and many will fail and go bankrupt. But
even companies that are making profits have borrowed a lot, for
mergers and acquisitions and to buy back shares, taking advantage of
very low interest rates. A drop in the stock market will make the
renewal of those debts more costly, as the debt to assets ratio
rapidly multiplies. This will present the same negative equity
problem as the one that occurred ten years ago during the subprime
housing bubble. But who will benefit from the bailout this time? Will
it be the banks all over again, or will it be the too large to fail
corporations? And do central banks have the capacity for a repeat
performance?
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home