Trumping the markets

Donald Trump has conducted trade and tariff skirmishes with Europe, China, Canada and Mexico, and has done his best to stop oil production in Venezuela and Iran. These campaigns of Tweets and executive orders have impacted stock markets, with share prices rising or falling according to the latest presidential dictate. Before running for office as president, Trump’s career had been that of a confidence trickster. He constantly managed to over-sell himself and swindled his way into more wealth than he had started out with. After a lifetime on the lookout for profits, could this opportunity be passed by? Imagine an investment fund in some tax haven receiving coded orders to buy or sell before a White House announcement or a nocturnal Twitter feed. Since January 2017, and especially over the last year or so, that would have been immensely profitable, a sure gain every time. Going a step further, this could be the driving force behind the president’s commercial and diplomatic “strategy”. Restricting the production and sale of oil by Iran and Venezuela favours the production of shale, offshore and arctic oil in the US. Tariffs on imports and the retaliatory measures they incur favour some US companies and disadvantage others. They tend to reduce economic growth, and stock market values react promptly. With foreknowledge, president Trump’s seemingly erratic foreign policies could be used as a perfect speculative tool.