Saturday, April 19, 2014

Does the logic fit the facts?


Supposing a nation has mineral reserves that are more expensive to extract than they are elsewhere around the world. Unless supply of that mineral is outpaced by demand and its price rises enough to include the greater cost of extraction, this nation is condemned to leave its resources underground and import the cheaper products from other nations, which will weigh on its balance of payments. Though demand for that mineral is growing, supply is abundant and could literally flood the market. So the aforementioned nation’s logical strategy is to reduce world supply by all means at its disposal.

Conventional oil production in North America peaked four decades ago, but extraction from the vast fields of shale oil could not compete with the light sweet oil that was being pumped up around the Persian Gulf and in the Libyan Desert. In 1980, Saddam Hussein attacked Iran. Iranian infrastructures were damaged and the country has been subjected to various embargoes ever since. In 1990, Saddam Hussein occupied Kuwait. The result was Desert Storm and wrecked infrastructures in both Kuwait and Iraq, the latter being wrecked again in 2003. Finally, in 2011, Libya was bombed, a dictator was executed and replaced by various armed militia, and oil production almost stopped. The price of a barrel soared after 2003 and has stabilised around the $100 mark. Mission accomplished!

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