A divided world on a roasting planet

The Syrian rebellion displaced millions of people who sought refuge inside Syria, in neighbouring countries, Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan, and beyond in Europe. That war is almost over, and refugees are trickling back. But most of them have nothing to go back to, just rubble and unexploded ordnance. They have saved their lives but lost their livelihoods, their homes and their past. The rebellion in Yemen has also displaced millions, but Yemen is surrounded by the sea and Saudi Arabia, so refugees had nowhere to flee to. They could only pile up in rebel held towns and be subjected to bombing, famine and disease. In Syria the “baddies” as seen by Western eyes were the government, its leader Assad and their Hezbollah, Iranian and Russian allies, until it got complicated when ISIS, al-Nusra and other radical groups took over the rebellion. In Yemen the “baddies” are the rebels and their Iranian supporters. The opposition between the Islamic Republic and the Wahhabi monarchy, between Shia and Sunni, has made a playground of these two deadly conflicts. And Russia’s involvement, because of its only remaining Mediterranean naval base at Latakia, has helped to revive the Cold War divide.

Hundreds of thousands have been killed, millions are displaced and an unknown number have been crippled physically and mentally. Meanwhile Western powers have debated “red lines”, gas attacks and migratory flows, and have objectively supported and strengthened the Shia coalition by destroying ISIS strongholds. In fact the US had already assisted Iran in 2003, when it invaded Iraq, deposed Saddam Hussein and his Sunni/Christian power base, and handed over government to the Shia majority. At present, Iran’s influence is continuous up to the borders of Turkey, Jordan and Israel. Hence the Saudis’ determination in stamping out the Houthi uprising in Yemen, and their increasing friendship with Israel is due to their total dependence on American, British and French arms supplies, also my enemy’s enemies… The Middle East has become the proxy confrontation between Iranians and Saudis, with a strong sectarian element, and when politics clothes itself in religion, certainties can reach fever-pitch. Having been refused European membership, Turkey seemed to be on that path, but the rift between Erdogan and Gülen, and the former’s sudden dependence on the army and police after the failed coup, have reinstalled a nationalist neo-Kemalist autocracy. Erdogan is back to crushing Kurds and is ever closer to despotic rulers in the Caucasus and the steppes of Asia, and to their master in Moscow. But Putin is the major sponsor of the Alawi/Assad dictatorship in Syria, which is another reason for Erdogan to play the Turkish nationalist fiddle rather than the Sunni religious one.

Sometime soon the fighting in Syria and Yemen will have simmered down, Daraa and Hodeida will have fallen, and Sana may have capitulated. But what happens then? Prince Salman will be master of the whole Arabian Peninsula and Iran will hold sway over Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, with Jordan stuck in between. It seems unlikely that these two opposing powers will accept this situation, and Jordan will probably be the next victim. However, Saudis are too few and too rich to have large infantry units. They must rely on proxy and mercenary troops. On the other side, the Alawi minority in Syria face a similar problem – without the riches – and have lost a lot of lives in the war. Without the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Iraqi militia, and Iranian advisors and supplies, the Assad regime would not have survived. Russia’s participation in the air more than on the ground also helped, especially as it blocked any all-out intervention by the US and its European allies.

Iran and Saudi Arabia will soon be confronting one another across the border between Syria and Jordan, with Israel lurking in the background. And their respective backers - Russia and China behind Iran and the US & Co. behind Saudi Arabia - are also shaping up for conflict over trade and territorial control. Published in 1957, Nevil Shute’s post-nuclear apocalypse novel “On the Beach” gives this brief explanation of events. “Here he learned for the first time of the Russian-Chinese war that had flared up out of the Russian-NATO war, that had in turn been born of the Israeli-Arab war, initiated by Albania.” A sort of butterfly effect, long before the concept was publicised. Sixty years on and life on planet Earth has not been wiped out by radioactive fallout, but the risk still exists along with climatic disturbance and financial collapse. And the arms race is on again with stealthy ships and planes, hypersonic missiles, space troupers and tactical nuclear war-heads. So far no one has pushed the fatal button of nuclear destruction. Tensions in Syria and the seas around China have not flared up into a face off, and nobody wants to destroy the world, “I hope the Russians love their children too” (Sting). At least not by nuclear holocaust, because parts of the planet’s inhabitants are being exterminated on a daily basis and rising temperatures may scorch everything in a not very distant future. Synthetic pollution and carbon dioxide are just as deadly as nuclear fireballs, but on a longer time scale. Humanity and the rest may be about to disappear with a whimper instead of a bang.