The great cash drain.
All
the existing forms of payment can be summarised to either cash or
credit. Cash is the yield of past productions, and credit is the
yield of putative future productions. The question then arises as to
whether increased investments should be paid with cash or credit, and
the same goes for the increased consumption that follows. Considering
that supplementary investments will produce in the future and that
past productions are consumed, it would seem logical to use credit
for investments and cash for consumption. The problem is that cash
(the yield of past productions) is not distributed evenly, and those
who get the larger shares save some of it and want to invest it to
get even more (1). These savings are collected by pension and
investment funds, banking and insurance, who are supposed to make
them grow with profits and interest. Hence the inversion of logic,
where cash is invested and consumption is paid with credit. The
yields of the past are invested to produce in the future, and future
yields are used to consume past productions.
Logic
apart, investing cash and consuming credit leads to some inconvenient
realities. A successful investment, one that avoids bubbles and
bankruptcies, returns its value plus a profit, whereas the value of
consumption is consumed and must be produced again. Credit invested
in future productions is returned when that production is sold on the
market. Credit for the consumption of past productions is not
returned. Moreover, credit is the fuel of growth because it
multiplies at will the means of payment in circulation. When credit
is invested, its value is returned and the credit can be renewed. In
this case, the amount of credit granted grows at the same rate as
investments and as the ensuing production. When credit is consumed,
its value is not returned and the credit’s renewal merely restores
the original credit. In this case, credit granted for consumption
grows much faster than the value consumed. For the value consumed to
grow by 10, following the series 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 et cetera, credit
must follow the series 10, 30, 50, 70, 90, 110 et cetera (interest
would add to the result). It grows twice as fast as consumption.
Cash,
the yield of past productions, is the go-between for the exchange of
existing products. But it is turned away from this function by
savings, and it is invested for profit or lent at interest. This
results in a lack of liquidity for the consumption of goods and
services, which is compensated by credit and, in the case of states,
by buying Treasury bonds and using them as a guarantee for credit
(2). This results in Treasury and household debts growing much faster
than GDP and leads unrelentingly to the present situation, whose
particularity is its amplitude. The subprime fiasco had granted loans
to people whose solvency was unverified, in a frantic attempt to keep
growth going. The outcome was a multiplication of consumed credit
that far outstripped all precedents, and the cash drain equalled this
excess. Except that the deviated wealth is far smaller than the mass
of credit that was granted and, being invested, is no longer cash.
Those
who pretend that the on-going crisis can be resolved by adjustments
and regulation are fools or liars. And, even if their responsibility
is obvious, expropriating the rich would be far short of the count.
In fact, the only way to cancel such a mountain of debts seems to be
two-figure inflation. As Keynes suggested, rentiers will undergo
euthanasia and, to paraphrase Proudhon, new institutions will be
imagined where the property of the means of production is no longer
theft. This process can only begin with steep rises for the lowest
wages and, to counter the 1% driven austerity of government programs,
will have to be preceded by intense and widespread social movements.
1. When a company uses its profits (the yield of past productions) to increase investments, it is doing the same thing.
2. If consumption is exported, as is the case for China, Germany and others past and present, savings can be invested without creating an unbalance of consumer supply and demand. However, it goes without saying that only some countries can do this to the prejudice of others, who must consume without producing and lose jobs or never have them.
See
http://lelezard.blogspot.fr/2012/05/deceptive-promise-of-growth.html
Treasury
bonds are also sold to foreign investors, which reduces trade
deficits but greatly complicates debt reduction.
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