What about the climate?

The knock-on effects of the respiratory syndrome pandemic - the lockdown and the economic recession - have filled the headlines with a continual barrage of information. The impressive gatherings of Black Lives Matter have obtained considerable media attention and vague promises. Time will tell if these popular movements have the endurance needed to bring about change, faced as they are by the vast resources of the dominant system. And then there is the reality drama in its 45^th season about the residents of an American White House, as the crucial four year rental term approaches. With all this going on, other events have been largely ignored. Wars, refugees, floods, droughts, locusts, Ebola, malaria, hunger and thirst have had little coverage. But, out of the blue, a two digit number was briefly mentioned everywhere, a record 38°C had been measured in the Arctic Circle, much warmer than most other places north of the Tropics. (1)

In the Arctic Ocean, melting snow-ice and permafrost are reducing salinity and modifying currents. The Gulf Stream is already off its usual course. Meanwhile, rising temperatures in the high latitudes are affecting atmospheric currents. The path of the northern Jet Stream is increasingly unpredictable. Sea and air circulations transport heat and cold, and mix them up to achieve a stable system. Increasing the heat by massive emissions of greenhouse gases is upsetting this balance. The flows of heat are overwhelming the flows of cold, and will soon have exhausted them. And when a cooling system runs out of cold, heat accumulates. Hotter oceans mean more energy for hurricanes and more evaporation for rainfall. A hotter atmosphere means more droughts for continental interiors. And in many places drought and flooding will alternate haphazardly. None of this will make life easy for anyone. Nature will have trouble adapting to such rapid change, and humans will be unable to survive in many regions of the world.

The pandemic imposed a lockdown that has resulted in a significant contraction of production and consumption. This recession is battering the economy, and bloated global finance is showing signs of systemic failure. Wealth is being destroyed, as businesses close or try to survive by cutting their work force. And the gap between rich and poor is widening faster than ever. But all these tribulations will be dwarfed by the havoc of a warming planet and of extreme meteorological events. The virus has not interrupted the production and distribution of essential goods and services, thanks to workers prepared to risk their health and lives. Whereas climate disruptions will seriously impact the production and distribution of food, drinking water and electricity, notwithstanding the sacrifices workers are prepared to make. However, unlike the suddenness of a pandemic, rising temperatures are progressive and non-linear, which makes them easy to ignore or deny. Though a concerned observer can note that droughts and floods are already more destructive and deadly than the COVID induced disruptions and fatalities. Up until recently these catastrophes had largely spared the developed northern temperate world, but that is no longer the case as all regions are impacted at an accelerating pace.

The planet is getting hotter and will continue to do so, until a new balance is reached between the heating and cooling effects of the daily and seasonal variations in the intensity of sunlight. Greenhouse gases do not increase the heat gains, they reduce the heat losses. The cooling of night-time and winter is less effective, so that each hot period starts a little warmer and heat accumulates from one cycle to the next. Ocean currents are also warmer when they return to the tropics, pushed back by rivers of melting polar ice and less salty water. Having passed the 400 parts per million, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing even during lockdown. This man-made greenhouse effect is getting stronger, while air and sea are also accumulating heat by the feedback from each cooling cycle. The two processes add together. The planet’s cooling system has been bridled, and the ancient equilibrium between hot and cold has been broken. Where and when a new one will occur is open to conjecture.

1. Last February a record 20.75°C was measured in Antarctica.