A Cold War Heritage.
Tunisia, Egypt, where is the next domino? Nothing as surprising as this has happened since the end of the Warsaw Pact. This suggests that these events are the counterpart of the Velvet and Orange revolutions. The overthrow of tyrants belonging to the communist “block” was just the prelude. Now is the turn of those belonging to the “free” world. The Cold War was built on two pillars, the continental nations USA and USSR, pushing against each other with mutually destructive strength. When one of the pillars suddenly crumbled away, the other tried to maintain the power structure alone. A function it had not been built for. Now that the overload is beginning to bring down the second pillar, what can be learnt from the ruins of the first?
Breaking the Wall in Berlin was the start of political change for Eastern Europe and for most of the Soviet Republics. For some nations, the transformation has been extremely violent, but the majority toppled their tyrannies with hardly any bloodshed. However, as the USSR broke into pieces, the USA appeared to many as the mainstay of a future construction. As one pillar fell, everyone clambered on the one left standing. Rejecting the soviet model, they adopted the American dream. This can no loner apply, because the dream has turned out to be a Hollywood fantasy, and because Ben Ali, Mubarak and Co. have all been (France's) America’s faithful servants. Rejecting them means rejecting their successive masters in (Paris) Washington. The bipolar world is over, this is the era of developing nations. The Russian and American moulds have lost their significance. And the emerging nations are constituting a new distribution of material power and ideas. Tunisians and Egyptians will look to Turkey and Iran for potential models of a new society.
Though there are no celebrations in view, this is the twentieth anniversary of the end of the Cold War. 1991 was a hectic year, beginning with the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact (feb 26), and ending with the dissolution of the USSR (dec 08). The precipitated disappearance of something so formidable was probably due to the fact that the USSR could no longer compete with the wealth of the USA and its allies, coupled with an abysmal digital gap. Reaganomics and Apple were moving far too quickly. In the past twenty years Russia has mutated from superpower status to that of a developing nation rich in mineral resources. And the Russian government seems to depend on secret police and organized criminals to suppress opposition, very similar to the governments of Tunisia, Egypt, etc.
The Cold War was the pretext for tyranny and oppression. The War on Terror is the pretext for maintaining the existing despotisms. Especially for the Muslim nations, where opposition is defined as Islamist, and Islamist is equated with terrorist. “It’s me or chaos”, croaked Mubarak, sacrificing his well-being for the nation, claiming that democracy would bring to power the Muslim Brothers. But then, given the simple choice, one might well prefer the Salvation Army to the mafia, despite their fundamentalism. The Iranian revolution was immediately attacked and isolated, and radicalised. The Turks were constantly subjected to military coups. Hopefully, Tunisians, Egyptians et al. will be allowed to choose their future more peacefully and with less urgency.
Breaking the Wall in Berlin was the start of political change for Eastern Europe and for most of the Soviet Republics. For some nations, the transformation has been extremely violent, but the majority toppled their tyrannies with hardly any bloodshed. However, as the USSR broke into pieces, the USA appeared to many as the mainstay of a future construction. As one pillar fell, everyone clambered on the one left standing. Rejecting the soviet model, they adopted the American dream. This can no loner apply, because the dream has turned out to be a Hollywood fantasy, and because Ben Ali, Mubarak and Co. have all been (France's) America’s faithful servants. Rejecting them means rejecting their successive masters in (Paris) Washington. The bipolar world is over, this is the era of developing nations. The Russian and American moulds have lost their significance. And the emerging nations are constituting a new distribution of material power and ideas. Tunisians and Egyptians will look to Turkey and Iran for potential models of a new society.
Though there are no celebrations in view, this is the twentieth anniversary of the end of the Cold War. 1991 was a hectic year, beginning with the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact (feb 26), and ending with the dissolution of the USSR (dec 08). The precipitated disappearance of something so formidable was probably due to the fact that the USSR could no longer compete with the wealth of the USA and its allies, coupled with an abysmal digital gap. Reaganomics and Apple were moving far too quickly. In the past twenty years Russia has mutated from superpower status to that of a developing nation rich in mineral resources. And the Russian government seems to depend on secret police and organized criminals to suppress opposition, very similar to the governments of Tunisia, Egypt, etc.
The Cold War was the pretext for tyranny and oppression. The War on Terror is the pretext for maintaining the existing despotisms. Especially for the Muslim nations, where opposition is defined as Islamist, and Islamist is equated with terrorist. “It’s me or chaos”, croaked Mubarak, sacrificing his well-being for the nation, claiming that democracy would bring to power the Muslim Brothers. But then, given the simple choice, one might well prefer the Salvation Army to the mafia, despite their fundamentalism. The Iranian revolution was immediately attacked and isolated, and radicalised. The Turks were constantly subjected to military coups. Hopefully, Tunisians, Egyptians et al. will be allowed to choose their future more peacefully and with less urgency.
posted by le Lézard at 7:35 AM
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